Tops and Bottoms: From Hesitation to Participation

​How many times have you heard someone say, “the market is expensive, I’m going to hold off investing”. These same people are still holding off and losing out on life changing investment gains all the while precious time in the market is passing them by.

I want to show you why no one (not even Warren Buffet) can time the market and why investing each and every month is the only sure way to become wealthy.

Have a look at some crucial market tops and bottoms we have seen in the last decade:

From the bottom of the Liberation Day sell-off around a year ago the S&P 500 is up 41%.
From the bottom of the 2022 bear market the S&P 500 is up 104%.
From the bottom of the Covid Crash in March 2020 the S&P 500 is up 238%.
From the bottom of the mini-bear market in 2011 the S&P 500 is up 715%.
From the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis in March 2009 the S&P 500 is up 1,292%.

Sure, buying at the exact bottom of a bear market leads to good returns when followed by a bull market. Duh! But what this really highlights is something deeper than returns. It's more of a reflection of human behaviour. We wait for clarity before acting, but in markets, clarity only comes after the opportunity has passed.

So, what about the tops?

From the peak just before the start of the Liberation Day sell-off the S&P 500 is up 15%.
From the peak just before the start of the 2022 bear market the S&P 500 is up 54%.
From the peak just before the Covid Crash the S&P 500 is up 124%.
From the peak before the 2011 double-dip the S&P 500 is up 564%.
From the peak in October 2007 before the onset of the Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 is up 524%.
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Not as good but still not bad considering those peaks were followed by drawdowns of -19%, -25%, -34%, -19% and -57%, respectively.

The moments that feel the most uncertain, when the headlines that make you hesitate, are often the very moments that shape long-term outcomes. Trying to avoid discomfort by timing the market usually leads to a far greater cost: missed participation.

​Here’s a visual summary:

Of course, no one is lucky enough to invest at the bottom of the market in a downturn. And no one has enough bad luck to invest only at the peak of the market right before a huge decline. Most people invest at different points along the way. Sometimes it’s near a top or bottom. Most of the time, it’s somewhere in between.

The important part of this data is to recognize that picking tops and bottoms doesn’t
matter nearly as much as you think. Your time horizon, risk tolerance and financial goals are what makes your financial plan unique to you, and it is more important than your ability to forecast market turning points.

The takeaway is simple, but not always easy to follow: success in investing isn’t built on perfectly timed decisions, it’s built on disciplined ones. Markets will always fluctuate, headlines will always create doubt, and there will always be a reason to wait. But the evidence is clear whether you invested at a peak, a trough, or anywhere in between, staying invested and continuing to add consistently has historically been far more rewarding than trying to outguess the market.

​The real risk isn’t investing at the wrong time, it’s sitting on the sidelines and missing the compounding effect that time in the market provides. A thoughtful, well-structured plan aligned with your goals and executed with consistency will always matter more than trying to predict what happens next.